Sunday, November 20, 2005

Strange timings cannot be a coincidence

Rumor has it that Zarqawi is dead. If this turns out to be true, it could mean multiple things. One of the likely possibilities, is that Al Qaeda's targetting of civilian muslims have actually turned traditionally non-intervening 'arab moderates' towards cooperating with the destruction of Al Qaeda, rather than tacitly supporting them. The anger at Al Qaeda within Jordan appeared to be quite strong, considering the multi-hundred thousand person protests.

It's also possible that Jordan's intelligence services actually knew more about Zarqawi that they let on... and just started cooperating more fully with the US and Iraq as a result of the latest bombing.

Either way, if Zarqawi is truly dead, the timing of the Jordan bombings are unlikely to be a coincidence.


While this is no reason to slack off in the GWOT, it should be recognized that this is the direct result of Al-Qaeda agenda of failure.
These days Al-Qaeda operates within the fringes of muslim society. They thrive because a lot of muslims believe Al-Qaeda has a legitimate gripe with the west. Thus many are willing to kind of look the other way, whether by choice or under threat. Unfortunately for Al-Qaeda, their goal of a pure islamic state in Iraq forces them to attack the so-called 'collaborator civilians' throughout the middle east. They are also required to attack 'targets of opportunity' rather than 'targets of choice'. This erodes their support within their not-quite-base, as civilians get blown up everywhere.

But Al-Qaeda is in dire straights. They cannot stop targetting civilians, otherwise democracy will flourish quite easily in Iraq. And for an organization bent upon theocratic domination of the world, that is unacceptable. Therefor they neccessarily must continue to erode their not-quite-base of support.

Looks like it was likely a mistake. Too bad.


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