Sunday, January 28, 2007

The west postures to Iran... again

I know I disparaged this as juvenile before, but who could possibly expect this to pay some sort of dividend?
We imposed wrist-slap sanctions on Iran for nuclear development, and even those are unlikely to be enforced (...still searching for evidence of UN sanctions actually working to resolve problems, if anybody knows of any examples, please give me a shout).

Iran: Give us some time, let us think about it and finish our centrifuge work, then we'll tell you 'no', okay?

Iran has been the *only* consistent voice in this dispute. They have steadfastly maintained their commitment to building nukes. It's the west that's been shuffling its feet and pretending to come up with different propositions, all of which end up being a form of "How much can we pay you to stop this?"

Acquiring nukes is not about money for Iran, they've got plenty of money. It's about the very survival of the theocracy. Without nukes, they are doomed to be overthrown.

It has long been my opinion that there is not sufficient will in any power capable of preventing Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons to actually prevent them from doing so. China and Russia will never support meaningful sanctions on such an important economic ally. The rest of the world is far too gun-shy since the Iraq invasion to undertake any form of military intervention. Consequently, it would be wisest to invest more of our time and attention to issues that potentially have a solution in which western powers can participate.


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